Defensor Sporting — Cerro, Primera División

Uruguay, Primera DivisiónOctober 10 at 02:00 PM

Defensor Sporting

2.0LWLWD

—

Cerro

1.5LDLWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

49%26%26%

Defensor SportingMarket 1.7949%DrawMarket 3.1826%CerroMarket 4.3026%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Defensor Sporting49%56%2.051.79-7.1

XDraw26%31%3.903.18-5.8

2Cerro26%23%3.924.30+2.3

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82book 2.11

No45%

ours 2.22book 1.64

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDefensor SportingCerroCombined

Goals scored1.331.002.33

Conceded1.671.002.67

Corners9.87.28.5

Cards1.72.74.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Defensor SportingCerro

Defensor Sporting Club 49%, Club Atlético Cerro 26%. The safest is “Defensor Sporting Club or draw” at 76%.

Defensor Sporting Club 49%Draw 26%Club Atlético Cerro 26%

1st half

38 · 38 · 23

2nd half

38 · 39 · 23

Bookmakers: 1.79 · 3.18 · 4.30

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%1.44

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context