All matches

DC United — New York Red Bulls, MLS

USA, MLS

DC United
1.1DLDWD
—
New York Red Bulls
1.7LWWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
44%25%31%
DC United44%Draw25%New York Red Bulls31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1DC United44%2.26—
XDraw25%4.00—
2New York Red Bulls31%3.25—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.69

No41%

ours 2.44

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDC UnitedNew York Red BullsCombined
Goals scored1.000.331.33
Conceded1.000.831.83
Corners11.411.611.5
Cards1.82.24.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

DC UnitedNew York Red Bulls

DC United 44%, New York Red Bulls 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

DC United 44%Draw 25%New York Red Bulls 31%
1st half
38 · 36 · 26
2nd half
34 · 38 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

DC United

  • awayVancouver Whitecaps3:3
  • homeCharlotte1:2
  • homeAtlanta United0:0
  • homeColumbus Crew2:1
  • homeLos Angeles0:0

New York Red Bulls

  • homeSt. Louis City0:3
  • awayNew York City1:0
  • awayColumbus Crew1:0
  • awayLos Angeles0:2
  • awaySeattle Sounders0:0

Head to head

  • 04/22/26MLS4:4
  • 05/24/25MLS0:2
  • 04/19/25MLS2:1
  • 06/29/24MLS2:2
  • 05/15/24MLS1:4

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
17New York City27891041:3633
18Cincinnati2689955:6433
19New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
20San Diego27881147:4732
21Portland Timbers27951348:5132
22Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
23Austin277101035:4731
24DC United26612834:4230
25Columbus Crew27851439:4329
26Minnesota United27781240:4929

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.