Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.90
No47%
ours 2.11
All matches
—
Cumbayá FC — CD El Nacional, Serie B
Ecuador, Serie B
Cumbayá FC
1.3LWWLL
CD El Nacional
1.6WLLLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
56%28%16%
Cumbayá FC56%Draw28%CD El Nacional16%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cumbayá FC1.80—
XDraw3.54—
2CD El Nacional6.19—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Combos
Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.
Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Sign upConfident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 907 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 906 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up68%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 903 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Cumbayá FCCD El Nacional
Cumbayá FC 56%, CD El Nacional 16%. The safest is “Cumbayá FC or draw” at 79%.
Cumbayá FC 56%Draw 28%CD El Nacional 16%
1st half
46 · 37 · 17
2nd half
30 · 46 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCumbayá FCCD El NacionalCombined
Goals scored1.671.673.34
Conceded0.831.502.33
Corners7.75.66.6
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Form and context
Cumbayá FC
- homeSanto Domingo0:3
- awayCD El Nacional3:0
- away22 de Julio7:1
- homeGualaceo0:1
- awaySanto Domingo1:2
CD El Nacional
- away22 de Julio5:2
- awayLDU Portoviejo2:3
- homeCumbayá FC0:3
- awaySanto Domingo0:1
- home22 de Julio3:0
Head to head
- 09/26/26Serie B3:0
- 07/08/26Serie B1:0
- 04/24/26Serie B2:1
- 09/15/24Serie A1:2
- 03/30/24Serie A1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
Cuenca Juniors291091023:3239
Cuenca Juniors291091023:32399
San Antonio307131028:3534
San Antonio307131028:353410Cumbayá FC28712933:2933
Cumbayá FC28712933:293311CD El Nacional30471926:4719
CD El Nacional30471926:471912
22 de Julio29442117:5816
22 de Julio29442117:581613
Vargas Torres52306:39
Vargas Torres52306:39Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.