Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.68
No40%
ours 2.47
All matches
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Crystal Palace — Newcastle United, Premier League
England, Premier League
Crystal Palace
2.4DWLWL
Newcastle United
2.5WLDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
38%26%36%
Crystal Palace38%Draw26%Newcastle United36%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Crystal Palace2.65—
XDraw3.83—
2Newcastle United2.76—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCrystal PalaceNewcastle UnitedCombined
Goals scored0.671.171.84
Conceded0.001.171.17
Corners9.011.010.0
Cards1.51.83.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Crystal PalaceNewcastle United
Crystal Palace FC 38%, Newcastle United FC 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Crystal Palace FC 38%Draw 26%Newcastle United FC 36%
1st half
34 · 35 · 30
2nd half
33 · 39 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 4.5
67%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Crystal Palace
- awayLeeds United0:0
- homeLech Poznan4:0
- homeIpswich Town2:3
- awayFulham3:2
- homeManchester City1:4
Newcastle United
- homeHull City2:1
- awayLeeds United1:4
- homeBournemouth2:2
- awayTottenham2:0
- homeLiverpool2:2
Head to head
- 04/12/26Premier League2:1
- 01/04/26Premier League0:2
- 04/16/25Premier League0:5
- 11/30/24Premier League1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
Everton52306:39
Everton52306:398
Hull City52216:48
Hull City52216:489Newcastle United52219:98
Newcastle United52219:9810
Chelsea521210:127
Chelsea521210:12711
Ipswich Town52037:116
Ipswich Town52037:11612
Manchester United51228:85
Manchester United51228:8513
Nottingham Forest51224:55
Nottingham Forest51224:5514
Sunderland51136:104
Sunderland51136:10415Crystal Palace51136:114
Crystal Palace51136:11416
Aston Villa51134:94
Aston Villa51134:9417
Bournemouth50326:83
Bournemouth50326:83Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.