All matches

Crusaders — Larne, NIFL Premiership

Northern Ireland, NIFL Premiership

Crusaders
1.3LWLWL
—
Larne
3.1WWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
16%17%67%
CrusadersMarket 1.1316%DrawMarket 8.2017%LarneMarket 15.0067%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Crusaders16%89%6.401.13-73.2
XDraw17%12%5.908.20+4.8
2Larne67%7%1.4815.00+60.8

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 1.99book 1.88

No50%

ours 2.01book 1.82

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCrusadersLarneCombined
Goals scored1.172.003.17
Conceded2.001.003.00
Corners9.810.710.3
Cards2.01.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

CrusadersLarne

Crusaders FC 16%, Larne FC 67%. The safest is “Larne FC or draw” at 81%.

Crusaders FC 16%Draw 17%Larne FC 67%
1st half
25 · 37 · 37
2nd half
18 · 36 · 46

Bookmakers: 1.13 · 8.20 · 15.00

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

70%1.25
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Crusaders

  • awayCarrick Rangers0:4
  • homeBangor2:1
  • awayLinfield0:1
  • homeDungannon Swifts3:0
  • homeLimavady United1:2

Larne

  • awayCarrick Rangers5:2
  • homeCliftonville2:0
  • awayPortadown2:0
  • homeBangor1:0
  • homeGlentoran2:1

Head to head

  • 01/31/26NIFL Premiership2:4
  • 12/20/25NIFL Premiership0:1
  • 09/16/25NIFL Premiership0:4
  • 04/05/25NIFL Premiership2:2
  • 02/08/25NIFL Premiership1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Coleraine1081122:1025
2Linfield971112:622
3Larne651012:316
4Glentoran1051415:1016
5Crusaders1050515:1815
6Carrick Rangers1041515:1513
7Dungannon Swifts94149:1013

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.