All matches

Vasco da Gama — Corinthians, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Vasco da Gama
1.6WWLWL
—
Corinthians
1.8LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
50%26%24%
Vasco da Gama50%Draw26%Corinthians24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Vasco da Gama50%2.00—
XDraw26%3.90—
2Corinthians24%4.10—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.76

No43%

ours 2.31

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVasco da GamaCorinthiansCombined
Goals scored1.170.501.67
Conceded0.331.171.50
Corners11.313.012.2
Cards2.72.04.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freeSign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Vasco da GamaCorinthians

CR Vasco da Gama 50%, SC Corinthians Paulista 24%. The safest is “CR Vasco da Gama or draw” at 76%.

CR Vasco da Gama 50%Draw 26%SC Corinthians Paulista 24%
1st half
42 · 38 · 20
2nd half
35 · 37 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

Sign in

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 5.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Sign in

Form and context

Vasco da Gama

  • homeCoritiba5:0
  • awayGremio2:1
  • awayFluminense0:1
  • homeCruzeiro3:1
  • awayPalmeiras1:4

Corinthians

  • homeFluminense1:3
  • awayFlamengo1:2
  • homeChapecoense1:2
  • homeSantos0:1
  • awayCoritiba1:2

Head to head

  • 04/26/26Serie A0:1
  • 08/24/25Serie A2:3
  • 04/05/25Serie A0:3
  • 11/24/24Serie A1:3
  • 07/10/24Serie A2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12Botafogo28981141:4535
13Vitoria28961328:4233
14Corinthians28881229:3232
15Mirassol28881233:4232
16Vasco da Gama27871234:4131
17Gremio28781330:3829
18Internacional286101230:3628

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.