All matches

Flamengo — Fluminense, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Flamengo
3.6WWWWW
—
Fluminense
2.6WLWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
62%23%15%
FlamengoMarket 1.3562%DrawMarket 5.1923%FluminenseMarket 9.1015%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Flamengo62%74%1.611.35-11.9
XDraw23%19%4.355.19+3.7
2Fluminense15%11%6.689.10+4.0

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81book 2.01

No45%

ours 2.23book 1.72

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFlamengoFluminenseCombined
Goals scored1.671.673.34
Conceded0.331.331.66
Corners13.411.012.2
Cards1.82.84.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

FlamengoFluminense

CR Flamengo 62%, Fluminense FC 15%. The safest is “CR Flamengo or draw” at 84%.

CR Flamengo 62%Draw 23%Fluminense FC 15%
1st half
43 · 40 · 17
2nd half
45 · 34 · 21

Bookmakers: 1.35 · 5.19 · 9.10

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

69%1.49
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Flamengo

  • homeRed Bull Bragantino2:1
  • homeCorinthians2:1
  • awayRemo1:0
  • homeMirassol2:0
  • homeBotafogo3:0

Fluminense

  • awayCorinthians3:1
  • awayCA Mineiro1:3
  • homeVasco da Gama1:0
  • awayCA Paranaense3:3
  • homeRemo2:1

Head to head

  • 04/12/26Serie A2:1
  • 11/20/25Serie A1:2
  • 07/20/25Serie A1:0
  • 10/17/24Serie A0:2
  • 06/23/24Serie A1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Flamengo28186455:2360
2Palmeiras28169347:2157
3CA Paranaense28147743:3249
4Fluminense28139644:3648
5Bahia281210643:3546
6Cruzeiro28136942:4045

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.