All matches

Coventry City — Sunderland, Premier League

England, Premier League

Coventry City
2.7WLLLL
—
Sunderland
2.4LWLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
38%27%35%
Coventry City38%Draw27%Sunderland35%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Coventry City38%2.63—
XDraw27%3.64—
2Sunderland35%2.89—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCoventry CitySunderlandCombined
Goals scored0.170.500.67
Conceded1.000.831.83
Corners8.311.09.7
Cards0.71.01.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Coventry CitySunderland

Coventry City FC 38%, Sunderland AFC 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 72%.

Coventry City FC 38%Draw 27%Sunderland AFC 35%
1st half
30 · 44 · 26
2nd half
30 · 39 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Coventry City

  • awayNottingham Forest1:0
  • homeBrighton0:5
  • awayManchester City0:1
  • homeHull City0:1
  • awayArsenal0:3

Sunderland

  • awayManchester City3:5
  • homeAZ Alkmaar1:0
  • homeArsenal0:2
  • awayBrentford1:1
  • homeFulham1:0

Head to head

  • 05/13/25Championship1:1
  • 05/09/25Championship1:2
  • 03/15/25Championship3:0
  • 11/09/24Championship2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12Manchester United51228:85
13Nottingham Forest51224:55
14Sunderland51136:104
15Crystal Palace51136:114
16Aston Villa51134:94
17Bournemouth50326:83
18Coventry City51041:103
19Fulham50235:82
20Tottenham50232:82

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.