Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.78book 1.54
No44%
ours 2.28book 2.35
All matches
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Coventry City — Newcastle United, Premier League
England, Premier League
Coventry City
2.7WLLLL
Newcastle United
2.5WLDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
37%27%36%
Coventry CityMarket 3.4537%DrawMarket 3.7527%Newcastle UnitedMarket 2.1836%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Coventry City2.683.45+8.4
XDraw3.733.75+0.1
2Newcastle United2.792.18-10.0
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCoventry CityNewcastle UnitedCombined
Goals scored0.831.502.33
Conceded1.671.833.50
Corners8.210.79.4
Cards0.82.33.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Coventry CityNewcastle United
Coventry City FC 37%, Newcastle United FC 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Coventry City FC 37%Draw 27%Newcastle United FC 36%
1st half
30 · 39 · 31
2nd half
34 · 39 · 27
Bookmakers: 3.45 · 3.75 · 2.18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 1.5
68%1.53
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Coventry City
- awayNottingham Forest1:0
- homeBrighton0:5
- awayManchester City0:1
- homeHull City0:1
- awayArsenal0:3
Newcastle United
- homeHull City2:1
- awayLeeds United1:4
- homeBournemouth2:2
- awayTottenham2:0
- homeLiverpool2:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
Everton52306:39
Everton52306:398
Hull City52216:48
Hull City52216:489Newcastle United52219:98
Newcastle United52219:9810
Chelsea521210:127
Chelsea521210:12711
Ipswich Town52037:116
Ipswich Town52037:11612
Manchester United51228:85
Manchester United51228:8513
Nottingham Forest51224:55
Nottingham Forest51224:5514
Sunderland51136:104
Sunderland51136:10415
Crystal Palace51136:114
Crystal Palace51136:11416
Aston Villa51134:94
Aston Villa51134:9417
Bournemouth50326:83
Bournemouth50326:8318Coventry City51041:103
Coventry City51041:10319
Fulham50235:82
Fulham50235:8220
Tottenham50232:82
Tottenham50232:82Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.