All matches

Columbus Crew — Toronto, MLS

USA, MLS

Columbus Crew
1.9WWLLW
—
Toronto
1.3LLLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
53%25%23%
Columbus Crew53%Draw25%Toronto23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Columbus Crew53%1.90—
XDraw25%4.07—
2Toronto23%4.37—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.29

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricColumbus CrewTorontoCombined
Goals scored0.670.170.84
Conceded0.331.331.66
Corners8.710.39.5
Cards2.71.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Columbus CrewToronto

Columbus Crew 53%, Toronto FC 23%. The safest is “Columbus Crew or draw” at 79%.

Columbus Crew 53%Draw 25%Toronto FC 23%
1st half
45 · 37 · 18
2nd half
36 · 38 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Columbus Crew

  • homeInter Miami2:1
  • awayMontreal Impact2:0
  • homeNew York Red Bulls0:1
  • awayDC United1:2
  • homeColorado Rapids3:0

Toronto

  • awayNashville SC0:2
  • awaySt. Louis City1:3
  • awayOrlando City0:3
  • homeNashville SC2:1
  • homeChicago Fire4:4

Head to head

  • 03/21/26MLS1:2
  • 09/20/25MLS1:1
  • 08/16/25MLS1:1
  • 09/18/24MLS2:0
  • 07/06/24MLS4:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
23Austin277101035:4731
24DC United26612834:4230
25Columbus Crew27851439:4329
26Minnesota United27781240:4929
27Toronto276111039:5129
28Atlanta United27761432:4527
29Montreal Impact27661534:5424

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.