Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.76
No43%
ours 2.32
All matches
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Sportivo Luqueno — Nacional, Division Profesional
Paraguay, Division Profesional
Sportivo Luqueno
1.3LLWLL
Nacional
2.6DWWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
27%25%48%
Sportivo Luqueno27%Draw25%Nacional48%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sportivo Luqueno3.70—
XDraw3.95—
2Nacional2.10—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSportivo LuquenoNacionalCombined
Goals scored0.500.671.17
Conceded0.670.170.84
Corners12.317.514.9
Cards1.72.03.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Sportivo LuquenoNacional
Club Sportivo Luqueño 27%, Club Nacional 48%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Club Sportivo Luqueño 27%Draw 25%Club Nacional 48%
1st half
30 · 39 · 30
2nd half
28 · 38 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 2.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Sportivo Luqueno
- awaySportivo Trinidense2:3
- homeGuarani0:1
- homeRecoleta1:0
- awayClub Olimpia0:3
- homeSportivo Ameliano1:2
Nacional
- homeSportivo Ameliano1:1
- home2 de Mayo3:0
- awayRubio Nu1:0
- awayCerro Porteno0:1
- homeLibertad3:0
Head to head
- 08/24/26Division Profesional0:2
- 03/27/26Division Profesional2:3
- 01/27/26Division Profesional1:2
- 10/12/25Division Profesional1:1
- 07/29/25Division Profesional2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Club Olimpia33225655:2671
Club Olimpia33225655:26712Nacional341613550:2961
Nacional341613550:29613
Libertad351761255:4057
Libertad351761255:40574
Sportivo Trinidense3515101053:3755
Sportivo Trinidense3515101053:37555
Cerro Porteno341671145:3355
Cerro Porteno341671145:33556
Sportivo Ameliano341215741:3451
Sportivo Ameliano341215741:34517
Guarani351214941:3350
Guarani351214941:33508
2 de Mayo3512111234:4847
2 de Mayo3512111234:48479
Recoleta351061949:5836
Recoleta351061949:583610Sportivo Luqueno35962038:5733
Sportivo Luqueno35962038:573311
Rubio Nu34881828:4932
Rubio Nu34881828:493212
Sportivo San Lorenzo35392318:6318
Sportivo San Lorenzo35392318:6318Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.