Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.72
No42%
ours 2.40
All matches
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Nacional — Recoleta, Division Profesional
Paraguay, Division Profesional
Nacional
2.6DWWLW
Recoleta
1.5LDLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
58%25%18%
Nacional58%Draw25%Recoleta18%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Nacional1.73—
XDraw4.07—
2Recoleta5.69—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNacionalRecoletaCombined
Goals scored1.330.501.83
Conceded0.331.832.16
Corners11.811.311.6
Cards1.61.32.9
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
NacionalRecoleta
Club Nacional 58%, CD Recoleta 18%. The safest is “Club Nacional or draw” at 80%.
Club Nacional 58%Draw 25%CD Recoleta 18%
1st half
42 · 38 · 20
2nd half
40 · 35 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Nacional
- homeSportivo Ameliano1:1
- home2 de Mayo3:0
- awayRubio Nu1:0
- awayCerro Porteno0:1
- homeLibertad3:0
Recoleta
- homeLibertad1:2
- awaySportivo San Lorenzo0:0
- awaySportivo Luqueno0:1
- homeSportivo Trinidense1:3
- awayGuarani0:2
Head to head
- 08/03/26Division Profesional2:3
- 04/24/26Division Profesional2:1
- 02/26/26Division Profesional2:2
- 11/27/25Division Profesional0:0
- 09/06/25Division Profesional1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Club Olimpia33225655:2671
Club Olimpia33225655:26712Nacional341613550:2961
Nacional341613550:29613
Libertad351761255:4057
Libertad351761255:40574
Sportivo Trinidense3515101053:3755
Sportivo Trinidense3515101053:37555
Cerro Porteno341671145:3355
Cerro Porteno341671145:33556
Sportivo Ameliano341215741:3451
Sportivo Ameliano341215741:34517
Guarani351214941:3350
Guarani351214941:33508
2 de Mayo3512111234:4847
2 de Mayo3512111234:48479Recoleta351061949:5836
Recoleta351061949:583610
Sportivo Luqueno35962038:5733
Sportivo Luqueno35962038:573311
Rubio Nu34881828:4932
Rubio Nu34881828:4932Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.