Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.82book 1.78
No45%
ours 2.22book 1.91
All matches
Nacional — Liverpool Montevideo, Primera División
Uruguay, Primera División
Nacional
2.9WWWWW
Liverpool Montevideo
2.5WDWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
51%25%24%
NacionalMarket 1.9551%DrawMarket 3.2525%Liverpool MontevideoMarket 3.5024%
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Nacional1.961.95+4.7
XDraw4.073.25-3.2
2Liverpool Montevideo4.103.50-1.4
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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71%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 2553 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 2548 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 2528 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
NacionalLiverpool Montevideo
Club Nacional de Football 51%, Liverpool FC Montevideo 24%. The safest is “Club Nacional de Football or draw” at 77%.
Club Nacional de Football 51%Draw 25%Liverpool FC Montevideo 24%
1st half
37 · 43 · 20
2nd half
41 · 37 · 23
Bookmakers: 1.95 · 3.25 · 3.50
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
70%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNacionalLiverpool MontevideoCombined
Goals scored2.201.403.60
Conceded0.800.801.60
Corners12.49.210.8
Cards3.22.65.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Nacional- 5 wins in a row3:2, 1:0, 2:0, 2:0, 3:2
- 3 clean sheets in the last 53:2, 1:0, 2:0, 2:0, 3:2
- Unbeaten at home in 5 matches3:2, 2:0, 3:2, 2:2, 1:0
Liverpool Montevideo- Unbeaten in 5 matches1:0, 1:1, 3:2, 2:1, 0:0
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Nacional
- homeMaldonado3:2
- awayCentral Espanol1:0
- homeMontevideo City2:0
- awayCerro Largo2:0
- homeDefensor Sporting3:2
Liverpool Montevideo
- homePenarol1:0
- awayMaldonado1:1
- homeProgreso3:2
- awayCentral Espanol2:1
- homeRacing Montevideo0:0
Head to head
- 04/19/26Primera División3:1
- 09/20/25Primera División3:1
- 03/26/25Primera División2:2
- 09/08/24Primera División1:0
- 06/15/24Primera División2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Penarol34207756:2867
Penarol34207756:28672
Maldonado33178852:3159
Maldonado33178852:31593Nacional331841151:4058
Nacional331841151:40584
Montevideo City331761054:3957
Montevideo City331761054:39575
Racing Montevideo331511739:2756
Racing Montevideo331511739:27566Liverpool Montevideo331411844:3153
Liverpool Montevideo331411844:31537
Montevideo Wanderers341481242:4750
Montevideo Wanderers341481242:47508
Albion331271444:4343
Albion331271444:4343Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.