Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.80
No45%
ours 2.24
All matches
—
Llaneros — Independiente Santa Fe, Categoria Primera A
Colombia, Categoria Primera A
Llaneros
1.6LLWLL
Independiente Santa Fe
2.8WWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
34%27%39%
Llaneros34%Draw27%Independiente Santa Fe39%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Llaneros2.93—
XDraw3.74—
2Independiente Santa Fe2.56—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLlanerosIndependiente Santa FeCombined
Goals scored1.171.332.50
Conceded1.500.502.00
Corners10.411.010.7
Cards3.03.26.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LlanerosIndependiente Santa Fe
Club Llaneros SA 34%, Independiente Santa Fe SA 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Club Llaneros SA 34%Draw 27%Independiente Santa Fe SA 39%
1st half
32 · 40 · 28
2nd half
29 · 40 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Llaneros
- homeAmerica de Cali1:2
- awayCucuta Deportivo1:2
- homeAtletico Nacional2:0
- awayLa Equidad2:3
- homeDeportes Tolima1:2
Independiente Santa Fe
- awayIndependiente Medellin1:0
- awayDeportivo Pereira2:1
- homeDeportivo Cali0:1
- awayAlianza Valledupar4:1
- homeDeportes Tolima1:0
Head to head
- 04/01/26Categoria Primera A1:0
- 10/12/25Categoria Primera A3:1
- 05/01/25Categoria Primera A0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Atletico Nacional35252870:3177
Atletico Nacional35252870:31772
America de Cali33187850:2761
America de Cali33187850:27613Independiente Santa Fe351415654:3657
Independiente Santa Fe351415654:36574
Deportes Tolima351511946:3456
Deportes Tolima351511946:34565
Junior361581354:4853
Junior361581354:48536
Deportivo Cali31149840:2551
Deportivo Cali31149840:25517
Millonarios321211949:3447
Millonarios321211949:34478
Once Caldas331114848:4147
Once Caldas331114848:41479
Bucaramanga301113646:3046
Bucaramanga301113646:304610
Independiente Medellin311371145:4046
Independiente Medellin311371145:404611
Pasto331271438:4643
Pasto331271438:464312
La Equidad349141142:5341
La Equidad349141142:534113
Rionegro Aguilas3010101034:4040
Rionegro Aguilas3010101034:404014Llaneros318121132:3636
Llaneros318121132:363615
Fortaleza CEIF316141135:4532
Fortaleza CEIF316141135:453216
Cucuta Deportivo317101437:5431
Cucuta Deportivo317101437:5431Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.