Llaneros — Deportivo Cali, Primera A

Colombia, Primera AOctober 21 at 11:15 PM

Llaneros

1.6LLLWL

Deportivo Cali

2.2DWWWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

34%31%35%

Llaneros34%Draw31%Deportivo Cali35%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Llaneros34%2.91—

XDraw31%3.22—

2Deportivo Cali35%2.89—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.12

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1869 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1865 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1856 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

LlanerosDeportivo Cali

Club Llaneros SA 34%, Asociación Deportivo Cali 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 70%.

Club Llaneros SA 34%Draw 31%Asociación Deportivo Cali 35%

1st half

23 · 50 · 27

2nd half

31 · 42 · 26

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLlanerosDeportivo CaliCombined

Goals scored1.001.502.50

Conceded1.330.171.50

Corners9.88.08.9

Cards3.42.25.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.