Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.76
No43%
ours 2.31
All matches
—
Libertad — Sportivo Luqueno, Division Profesional
Paraguay, Division Profesional
Libertad
2.6WLDWW
Sportivo Luqueno
1.3LLWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
58%25%18%
Libertad58%Draw25%Sportivo Luqueno18%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Libertad1.74—
XDraw4.02—
2Sportivo Luqueno5.69—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLibertadSportivo LuquenoCombined
Goals scored0.830.501.33
Conceded0.501.171.67
Corners9.510.810.1
Cards2.01.83.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LibertadSportivo Luqueno
Club Libertad 58%, Club Sportivo Luqueño 18%. The safest is “Club Libertad or draw” at 81%.
Club Libertad 58%Draw 25%Club Sportivo Luqueño 18%
1st half
38 · 40 · 22
2nd half
43 · 35 · 21
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Libertad
- awayRecoleta2:1
- homeClub Olimpia0:1
- homeSportivo Ameliano1:1
- away2 de Mayo2:0
- homeRubio Nu4:2
Sportivo Luqueno
- awaySportivo Trinidense2:3
- homeGuarani0:1
- homeRecoleta1:0
- awayClub Olimpia0:3
- homeSportivo Ameliano1:2
Head to head
- 08/16/26Division Profesional2:1
- 05/10/26Division Profesional3:2
- 03/07/26Division Profesional1:0
- 09/13/25Division Profesional4:1
- 07/05/25Division Profesional0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Club Olimpia33225655:2671
Club Olimpia33225655:26712
Nacional341613550:2961
Nacional341613550:29613Libertad351761255:4057
Libertad351761255:40574
Sportivo Trinidense3515101053:3755
Sportivo Trinidense3515101053:37555
Cerro Porteno341671145:3355
Cerro Porteno341671145:33556
Sportivo Ameliano341215741:3451
Sportivo Ameliano341215741:34517
Guarani351214941:3350
Guarani351214941:33508
2 de Mayo3512111234:4847
2 de Mayo3512111234:48479
Recoleta351061949:5836
Recoleta351061949:583610Sportivo Luqueno35962038:5733
Sportivo Luqueno35962038:573311
Rubio Nu34881828:4932
Rubio Nu34881828:493212
Sportivo San Lorenzo35392318:6318
Sportivo San Lorenzo35392318:6318Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.