Independiente Petrolero — Academia del Balompie, LFPB

Bolivia, LFPBOctober 24 at 11:30 PM

Independiente Petrolero

1.8DLLLL

Academia del Balompie

1.2LLLLW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

62%21%17%

Independiente Petrolero62%Draw21%Academia del Balompie17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Independiente Petrolero62%1.60—

XDraw21%4.83—

2Academia del Balompie17%5.95—

our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.71

No42%

ours 2.40

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1969 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1965 matches

Cards

This market opens with Premium.

71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1955 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Independiente PetroleroAcademia del Balompie

Club Independiente Petrolero 62%, Academia del Balompié Boliviano 17%. The safest is “Club Independiente Petrolero or draw” at 80%.

Club Independiente Petrolero 62%Draw 21%Academia del Balompié Boliviano 17%

1st half

36 · 42 · 22

2nd half

51 · 31 · 18

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with Premium

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIndependiente PetroleroAcademia del BalompieCombined

Goals scored0.400.801.20

Conceded2.402.004.40

Corners10.27.48.8

Cards2.23.45.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with Premium

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.