Both teams to score
Yes52%
ours 1.91
No48%
ours 2.10
All matches
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Deportes Tolima — Pasto, Categoria Primera A
Colombia, Categoria Primera A
Deportes Tolima
2.9DDDLL
Pasto
1.6DLWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
60%24%16%
Deportes Tolima60%Draw24%Pasto16%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Deportes Tolima1.67—
XDraw4.09—
2Pasto6.43—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricDeportes TolimaPastoCombined
Goals scored0.500.330.83
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners9.75.87.7
Cards3.02.55.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Deportes TolimaPasto
Club Deportes Tolima SA 60%, AD Pasto 16%. The safest is “Club Deportes Tolima SA or draw” at 82%.
Club Deportes Tolima SA 60%Draw 24%AD Pasto 16%
1st half
43 · 38 · 18
2nd half
38 · 41 · 21
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Deportes Tolima
- homeBoyaca Chico0:0
- awayFortaleza CEIF2:2
- homeAmerica de Cali1:1
- awayOnce Caldas0:1
- awayIndependiente Santa Fe0:1
Pasto
- homeFortaleza CEIF0:0
- awayBoyaca Chico0:3
- homeOnce Caldas1:0
- awayAmerica de Cali1:0
- awayCucuta Deportivo2:2
Head to head
- 05/13/26Categoria Primera A2:0
- 05/09/26Categoria Primera A1:0
- 04/11/26Categoria Primera A0:1
- 07/12/25Categoria Primera A2:3
- 01/28/25Categoria Primera A2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
America de Cali33187850:2761
America de Cali33187850:27613
Independiente Santa Fe351415654:3657
Independiente Santa Fe351415654:36574Deportes Tolima351511946:3456
Deportes Tolima351511946:34565
Junior361581354:4853
Junior361581354:48536
Deportivo Cali31149840:2551
Deportivo Cali31149840:25517
Millonarios321211949:3447
Millonarios321211949:34478
Once Caldas331114848:4147
Once Caldas331114848:41479
Bucaramanga301113646:3046
Bucaramanga301113646:304610
Independiente Medellin311371145:4046
Independiente Medellin311371145:404611Pasto331271438:4643
Pasto331271438:464312
La Equidad349141142:5341
La Equidad349141142:534113
Rionegro Aguilas3010101034:4040
Rionegro Aguilas3010101034:4040Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.