Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.84book 2.16
No46%
ours 2.19book 1.62
All matches
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Atletico Nacional — Pasto, Categoria Primera A
Colombia, Categoria Primera A
Atletico Nacional
3.4WDLWW
Pasto
1.6DLWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
69%21%10%
Atletico NacionalMarket 1.1869%DrawMarket 6.2521%PastoMarket 13.4010%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atletico Nacional1.461.18-15.8
XDraw4.776.25+4.9
2Pasto9.6213.40+2.9
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAtletico NacionalPastoCombined
Goals scored1.500.832.33
Conceded1.001.172.17
Corners10.66.88.7
Cards2.62.85.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Atletico NacionalPasto
Club Atlético Nacional SA 69%, AD Pasto 10%. The safest is “Club Atlético Nacional SA or draw” at 88%.
Club Atlético Nacional SA 69%Draw 21%AD Pasto 10%
1st half
47 · 36 · 17
2nd half
46 · 36 · 17
Bookmakers: 1.18 · 6.25 · 13.40
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Match result: Home
69%1.18
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Atletico Nacional
- homeJunior3:1
- homeMillonarios1:1
- awayLlaneros0:2
- awayLa Equidad3:2
- homeRionegro Aguilas2:0
Pasto
- homeFortaleza CEIF0:0
- awayBoyaca Chico0:3
- homeOnce Caldas1:0
- awayAmerica de Cali1:0
- awayCucuta Deportivo2:2
Head to head
- 03/29/26Categoria Primera A2:1
- 10/18/25Categoria Primera A2:2
- 04/30/25Categoria Primera A3:0
- 12/05/24Categoria Primera A2:1
- 11/24/24Categoria Primera A1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Atletico Nacional35252870:3177
Atletico Nacional35252870:31772
America de Cali33187850:2761
America de Cali33187850:27613
Independiente Santa Fe351415654:3657
Independiente Santa Fe351415654:36574
Deportes Tolima351511946:3456
Deportes Tolima351511946:34565
Junior361581354:4853
Junior361581354:48536
Deportivo Cali31149840:2551
Deportivo Cali31149840:25517
Millonarios321211949:3447
Millonarios321211949:34478
Once Caldas331114848:4147
Once Caldas331114848:41479
Bucaramanga301113646:3046
Bucaramanga301113646:304610
Independiente Medellin311371145:4046
Independiente Medellin311371145:404611Pasto331271438:4643
Pasto331271438:464312
La Equidad349141142:5341
La Equidad349141142:534113
Rionegro Aguilas3010101034:4040
Rionegro Aguilas3010101034:4040Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.