All matches

Atletico Grau — Deportivo Tarma, Primera División

Peru, Primera División

Atletico Grau
1.6LWLWW
—
Deportivo Tarma
1.6WLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
52%25%22%
Atletico Grau52%Draw25%Deportivo Tarma22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atletico Grau52%1.91—
XDraw25%3.95—
2Deportivo Tarma22%4.46—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.17

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAtletico GrauDeportivo TarmaCombined
Goals scored1.170.501.67
Conceded1.331.502.83
Corners10.310.510.4
Cards2.82.35.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Atletico GrauDeportivo Tarma

Club Atlético Grau 52%, Asociación Deportiva Tarma 22%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Club Atlético Grau 52%Draw 25%Asociación Deportiva Tarma 22%
1st half
36 · 43 · 21
2nd half
34 · 39 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Atletico Grau

  • awaySporting Cristal1:3
  • homeAlianza Atletico Sullana3:1
  • awayGarcilaso2:4
  • homeMelgar1:0
  • awayCajamarca3:1

Deportivo Tarma

  • homeCienciano2:1
  • awayAlianza Lima0:2
  • awayMelgar0:3
  • homeSport Huancayo1:3
  • awayJuan Pablo II1:5

Head to head

  • 05/02/26Primera División0:1
  • 08/31/25Primera División2:0
  • 02/15/25Primera División3:4
  • 08/04/24Primera División2:1
  • 02/25/24Primera División2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Sport Huancayo271051237:4435
12Juan Pablo II27971142:5234
13Atletico Grau27951326:3132
14Comerciantes Unidos27791135:3830
15Cajamarca27761441:5227
16Deportivo Tarma27671429:4225
17UCV Moquegua27671424:4125
18UT Cajamarca27481532:5020

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.