Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.67
No40%
ours 2.50
All matches
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Atletico Madrid — Manchester United, UEFA Champions League
Europe, UEFA Champions League
Atletico Madrid
3.2WWWLL
Manchester United
2.8DLWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
36%26%38%
Atletico Madrid36%Draw26%Manchester United38%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atletico Madrid2.76—
XDraw3.89—
2Manchester United2.62—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAtletico MadridManchester UnitedCombined
Goals scored1.672.003.67
Conceded1.001.002.00
Corners9.411.410.4
Cards1.21.22.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Atletico MadridManchester United
Club Atlético de Madrid 36%, Manchester United FC 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Club Atlético de Madrid 36%Draw 26%Manchester United FC 38%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Atletico Madrid
- homeReal Madrid2:1
- homeOsasuna4:0
- awayReal Sociedad3:0
- awayLiverpool1:2
- awayAthletic Bilbao0:3
Manchester United
- awayFulham1:1
- homeManchester City0:1
- homeSabah4:0
- awayEverton2:2
- homeIpswich Town5:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
29
Bayern Munich11005:03
Bayern Munich11005:0330
Barcelona11005:13
Barcelona11005:1331Manchester United11004:03
Manchester United11004:0332
Como11004:13
Como11004:1333
Stuttgart11003:13
Stuttgart11003:1334
Sporting CP11003:13
Sporting CP11003:1335
Manchester City11002:03
Manchester City11002:0336
Real Betis11003:23
Real Betis11003:2337
Lens11003:23
Lens11003:2338
Aston Villa11003:23
Aston Villa11003:2339
Borussia Dortmund11003:23
Borussia Dortmund11003:2340
Liverpool11002:13
Liverpool11002:1341
Real Madrid11002:13
Real Madrid11002:1342
Arsenal11001:03
Arsenal11001:0343
LASK31025:53
LASK31025:5344
Lech Poznan21015:53
Lech Poznan21015:5345
Omonia21011:13
Omonia21011:1346
Celtic21014:53
Celtic21014:5347
Vardar21013:43
Vardar21013:4348
Riga21013:43
Riga21013:4349
KuPS41034:63
KuPS41034:6350
Floriana21013:53
Floriana21013:5351
Sparta Prague21012:43
Sparta Prague21012:4352
Shakhtar Donetsk10101:11
Shakhtar Donetsk10101:1153
Roma10101:11
Roma10101:1154
PSV10101:11
PSV10101:1155
Union Saint-Gilloise20115:61
Union Saint-Gilloise20115:6156
Flora20114:51
Flora20114:5157
Thun20113:41
Thun20113:4158
Drita20113:41
Drita20113:4159
ETO Gyor20112:31
ETO Gyor20112:3160
Gornik Zabrze20111:21
Gornik Zabrze20111:2161
Olympiakos20111:21
Olympiakos20111:2162
Inter Escaldes20112:41
Inter Escaldes20112:4163
Borac Banja Luka20111:51
Borac Banja Luka20111:5164
Petrocub20112:71
Petrocub20112:7165
Slavia Prague10012:30
Slavia Prague10012:3066
Lille10012:30
Lille10012:3067
Villarreal10012:30
Villarreal10012:3068
Club Brugge10012:30
Club Brugge10012:3069
Inter Milan10011:20
Inter Milan10011:2070Atletico Madrid10011:20
Atletico Madrid10011:2071
Napoli10010:10
Napoli10010:1072
Atert Bissen20022:40
Atert Bissen20022:40Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.