All matches

Atletico Madrid — Bayern Munich, UEFA Champions League

Europe, UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid
3.2WWWLL
—
Bayern Munich
4.7WWWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
30%24%47%
Atletico Madrid30%Draw24%Bayern Munich47%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atletico Madrid30%3.37—
XDraw24%4.23—
2Bayern Munich47%2.14—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes65%

ours 1.55

No35%

ours 2.83

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAtletico MadridBayern MunichCombined
Goals scored0.000.000.00
Conceded0.000.000.00
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Atletico MadridBayern Munich

Club Atlético de Madrid 30%, FC Bayern München 47%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

Club Atlético de Madrid 30%Draw 24%FC Bayern München 47%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Atletico Madrid

  • homeReal Madrid2:1
  • homeOsasuna4:0
  • awayReal Sociedad3:0
  • awayLiverpool1:2
  • awayAthletic Bilbao0:3

Bayern Munich

  • homeUnion Berlin7:0
  • awayElversberg2:1
  • homeBodo/Glimt5:0
  • awaySchalke 040:0
  • homeStuttgart5:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
27NEC Nijmegen41123:74
28PSG11006:13
29Bayern Munich11005:03
30Barcelona11005:13
31Manchester United11004:03
32Como11004:13
33Stuttgart11003:13
34Sporting CP11003:13
35Manchester City11002:03
36Real Betis11003:23
37Lens11003:23
38Aston Villa11003:23
39Borussia Dortmund11003:23
40Liverpool11002:13
41Real Madrid11002:13
42Arsenal11001:03
43LASK31025:53
44Lech Poznan21015:53
45Omonia21011:13
46Celtic21014:53
47Vardar21013:43
48Riga21013:43
49KuPS41034:63
50Floriana21013:53
51Sparta Prague21012:43
52Shakhtar Donetsk10101:11
53Roma10101:11
54PSV10101:11
55Union Saint-Gilloise20115:61
56Flora20114:51
57Thun20113:41
58Drita20113:41
59ETO Gyor20112:31
60Gornik Zabrze20111:21
61Olympiakos20111:21
62Inter Escaldes20112:41
63Borac Banja Luka20111:51
64Petrocub20112:71
65Slavia Prague10012:30
66Lille10012:30
67Villarreal10012:30
68Club Brugge10012:30
69Inter Milan10011:20
70Atletico Madrid10011:20
71Napoli10010:10
72Atert Bissen20022:40

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.