Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.84
No46%
ours 2.19
All matches
Cerro — Central Espanol, Primera División
Uruguay, Primera División
Cerro
1.7DWLDL
Central Espanol
1.6LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
41%27%32%
Cerro41%Draw27%Central Espanol32%
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cerro2.42—
XDraw3.71—
2Central Espanol3.15—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with Premium.
72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 2904 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 2896 matches
Cards
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 2886 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
CerroCentral Espanol
Club Atlético Cerro 41%, Central Español FC 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 72%.
Club Atlético Cerro 41%Draw 27%Central Español FC 32%
1st half
40 · 41 · 19
2nd half
25 · 40 · 35
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCerroCentral EspanolCombined
Goals scored1.000.401.40
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Cerro- Worst attack in the league — 27 goals in 33 matches12th place, 37 points
- Most yellow cards in the league — 3.4 per match16 teams in the league
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
Central Espanol- 6 defeats in a row1:3, 0:1, 0:1, 0:3, 1:2
- Winless away in 6 matches0:1, 0:3, 0:0, 0:3, 1:2
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches10 goals conceded
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Cerro
- homeCerro Largo1:1
- awayDefensor Sporting3:2
- homeMontevideo Wanderers0:2
- awayJuventud0:0
- homePenarol1:2
Central Espanol
- homeAlbion1:3
- awayDanubio0:1
- homeNacional0:1
- awayMaldonado0:3
- homeLiverpool Montevideo1:2
Head to head
- 05/24/26Primera División1:0
- 04/26/26Primera División1:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
Albion341371447:4446
Albion341371447:44469
Juventud3410111337:4141
Juventud3410111337:414110
Central Espanol341081633:4738
Central Espanol341081633:473811
Boston River331071633:4337
Boston River331071633:433712
Cerro331071627:4837
Cerro331071627:483713
Defensor Sporting338111430:4035
Defensor Sporting338111430:403514
Cerro Largo338101530:3834
Cerro Largo338101530:3834Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.