All matches

Alianza Lima — Cienciano, Primera División

Peru, Primera División

Alianza Lima
3.4WLDLD
—
Cienciano
2.2DLWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
65%22%13%
Alianza Lima65%Draw22%Cienciano13%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Alianza Lima65%1.54—
XDraw22%4.57—
2Cienciano13%7.52—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.17

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAlianza LimaCiencianoCombined
Goals scored0.500.330.83
Conceded0.330.500.83
Corners11.510.511.0
Cards1.03.54.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Alianza LimaCienciano

Club Alianza Lima 65%, Club Cienciano 13%. The safest is “Club Alianza Lima or draw” at 83%.

Club Alianza Lima 65%Draw 22%Club Cienciano 13%
1st half
44 · 37 · 19
2nd half
42 · 39 · 19
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Alianza Lima

  • homeDeportivo Tarma2:0
  • homeUniversitario de Deportes1:2
  • awayJuan Pablo II1:1
  • homeGarcilaso0:1
  • awayMelgar1:1

Cienciano

  • homeLos Chankas1:1
  • awayDeportivo Tarma1:2
  • awayCajamarca5:2
  • homeReal Garcilaso1:2
  • awaySport Boys1:5

Head to head

  • 05/16/26Primera División1:0
  • 09/28/25Primera División1:2
  • 05/03/25Primera División0:1
  • 08/21/24Primera División3:0
  • 03/13/24Primera División1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Alianza Lima27168344:1856
2Universitario de Deportes27147643:3149
3Garcilaso27146739:2448
4Melgar27137745:2946
5Real Garcilaso271431040:3845
6Los Chankas27126936:4542
7Cienciano271251046:4041
8Alianza Atletico Sullana27117940:3540
9Sporting Cristal271151148:4038

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.