Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.82
No45%
ours 2.22
All matches
—
Alianza Atletico Sullana — Garcilaso, Primera División
Peru, Primera División
Alianza Atletico Sullana
2.3WLWWW
Garcilaso
2.4WLWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
50%26%25%
Alianza Atletico Sullana50%Draw26%Garcilaso25%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Alianza Atletico Sullana2.01—
XDraw3.90—
2Garcilaso4.07—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAlianza Atletico SullanaGarcilasoCombined
Goals scored1.001.332.33
Conceded1.000.501.50
Corners9.312.010.7
Cards2.02.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Alianza Atletico SullanaGarcilaso
Club Alianza Atlético Sullana 50%, Club Deportivo Garcilaso 25%. The safest is “Club Alianza Atlético Sullana or draw” at 77%.
Club Alianza Atlético Sullana 50%Draw 26%Club Deportivo Garcilaso 25%
1st half
36 · 41 · 23
2nd half
40 · 38 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Alianza Atletico Sullana
- homeComerciantes Unidos2:1
- awayAtletico Grau1:3
- homeUT Cajamarca3:2
- awayUCV Moquegua4:1
- homeSporting Cristal3:1
Garcilaso
- homeUniversitario de Deportes4:0
- awaySport Boys0:1
- homeAtletico Grau4:2
- awayAlianza Lima1:0
- homeReal Garcilaso4:1
Head to head
- 05/11/26Primera División1:2
- 10/05/25Primera División4:2
- 05/16/25Primera División1:0
- 08/10/24Primera División1:0
- 02/29/24Primera División3:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Alianza Lima27168344:1856
Alianza Lima27168344:18562
Universitario de Deportes27147643:3149
Universitario de Deportes27147643:31493Garcilaso27146739:2448
Garcilaso27146739:24484
Melgar27137745:2946
Melgar27137745:29465
Real Garcilaso271431040:3845
Real Garcilaso271431040:38456
Los Chankas27126936:4542
Los Chankas27126936:45427
Cienciano271251046:4041
Cienciano271251046:40418Alianza Atletico Sullana27117940:3540
Alianza Atletico Sullana27117940:35409
Sporting Cristal271151148:4038
Sporting Cristal271151148:403810
Sport Boys27108929:2638
Sport Boys27108929:2638Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.