Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.64
No39%
ours 2.57
All matches
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Chattanooga — New York City II, MLS Next Pro
USA, MLS Next Pro
Chattanooga
2.5WWWWL
New York City II
1.9DWWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
51%23%26%
Chattanooga51%Draw23%New York City II26%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Chattanooga1.98—
XDraw4.28—
2New York City II3.82—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricChattanoogaNew York City IICombined
Goals scored2.501.674.17
Conceded1.501.673.17
Corners9.810.510.2
Cards1.82.03.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ChattanoogaNew York City II
Chattanooga FC 51%, New York City FC II 26%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Chattanooga FC 51%Draw 23%New York City FC II 26%
1st half
39 · 38 · 23
2nd half
37 · 36 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 3.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Chattanooga
- awayChicago Fire II1:0
- homeAtlanta United II4:1
- awayHuntsville City2:1
- homeCarolina Core5:2
- awayCrown Legacy1:3
New York City II
- awayPhiladelphia Union II1:1
- homeConnecticut United1:0
- homeNew York Red Bulls II4:2
- awayInter Miami II2:4
- awayToronto FC II0:2
Head to head
- 06/21/26MLS Next Pro1:1
- 09/28/25MLS Next Pro1:0
- 03/27/24MLS Next Pro1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Austin II28196354:2163
Austin II28196354:21632
Crown Legacy28158567:3953
Crown Legacy28158567:39533Chattanooga28157656:3952
Chattanooga28157656:39524
Portland Timbers II281410437:2952
Portland Timbers II281410437:29525
Los Angeles Galaxy II28147758:3649
Los Angeles Galaxy II28147758:36496
Houston Dynamo II28146853:3348
Houston Dynamo II28146853:33487
Atlanta United II28145962:4647
Atlanta United II28145962:46478
New York Red Bulls II281351058:4844
New York Red Bulls II281351058:48449
Connecticut United281421259:5244
Connecticut United281421259:524410New York City II281351050:4444
New York City II281351050:444411
New England Revolution II28128847:4244
New England Revolution II28128847:424412
Columbus Crew II28127949:4343
Columbus Crew II28127949:4343Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.