All matches

Charlotte — Montreal Impact, MLS

USA, MLS

Charlotte
2.3LWDWD
—
Montreal Impact
0.9WLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
54%24%22%
Charlotte54%Draw24%Montreal Impact22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Charlotte54%1.85—
XDraw24%4.23—
2Montreal Impact22%4.48—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.67

No40%

ours 2.48

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCharlotteMontreal ImpactCombined
Goals scored0.330.500.83
Conceded0.330.500.83
Corners8.58.08.3
Cards3.52.05.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

CharlotteMontreal Impact

Charlotte FC 54%, Montreal Impact 22%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

Charlotte FC 54%Draw 24%Montreal Impact 22%
1st half
40 · 36 · 25
2nd half
36 · 38 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Charlotte

  • homeChicago Fire0:1
  • awayDC United2:1
  • awayCincinnati3:3
  • awayMontreal Impact2:1
  • homeHouston Dynamo0:0

Montreal Impact

  • homeCincinnati3:1
  • homeColumbus Crew0:2
  • awayColorado Rapids0:1
  • homeCharlotte1:2
  • awayPhiladelphia Union0:2

Head to head

  • 09/09/26MLS2:1
  • 09/27/25MLS1:4
  • 04/12/25MLS1:0
  • 10/05/24MLS2:0
  • 09/14/24MLS1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7San Jose Earthquakes27136849:3945
8Houston Dynamo27135934:3244
9Charlotte27127847:3843
10Chicago Fire26126846:3842
11Los Angeles28118943:3041
12Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
13Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
14Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
15LA Galaxy28991037:4436
16Orlando City271041348:6434
17New York City27891041:3633
18Cincinnati2689955:6433
19New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
20San Diego27881147:4732
21Portland Timbers27951348:5132
22Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
23Austin277101035:4731
24DC United26612834:4230
25Columbus Crew27851439:4329
26Minnesota United27781240:4929
27Toronto276111039:5129
28Atlanta United27761432:4527
29Montreal Impact27661534:5424
30Sporting Kansas City27631832:6521

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.