Universidad de Chile — Everton Vina del Mar, Primera División

Chile, Primera DivisiónOctober 25 at 12:00 AM

Universidad de Chile

3.1WWLLW

—

Everton Vina del Mar

1.7WLWWD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

59%21%20%

Universidad de Chile59%Draw21%Everton Vina del Mar20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Universidad de Chile59%1.70—

XDraw21%4.77—

2Everton Vina del Mar20%4.98—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81

No45%

ours 2.23

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricUniversidad de ChileEverton Vina del MarCombined

Goals scored2.001.673.67

Conceded1.170.671.84

Corners10.87.89.3

Cards2.01.23.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Sign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Universidad de ChileEverton Vina del Mar

CFP Universidad de Chile 59%, Everton de Viña del Mar 20%. The safest is “No draw” at 79%.

CFP Universidad de Chile 59%Draw 21%Everton de Viña del Mar 20%

1st half

40 · 37 · 23

2nd half

42 · 36 · 21

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context