Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.67
No40%
ours 2.48
All matches
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Pachuca — Cruz Azul, Liga MX
Mexico, Liga MX
Pachuca
2.1LDWWD
Cruz Azul
3.3DLWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
39%25%36%
Pachuca39%Draw25%Cruz Azul36%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Pachuca2.59—
XDraw3.96—
2Cruz Azul2.76—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPachucaCruz AzulCombined
Goals scored1.171.332.50
Conceded0.501.171.67
Corners9.511.810.6
Cards3.02.85.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PachucaCruz Azul
CF Pachuca 39%, Cruz Azul FC 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
CF Pachuca 39%Draw 25%Cruz Azul FC 36%
1st half
32 · 37 · 30
2nd half
32 · 39 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Pachuca
- awaySantos Laguna0:1
- homeTijuana2:2
- awayAtlante3:0
- awayJuarez2:0
- homeGuadalajara1:1
Cruz Azul
- homeDeportivo Toluca3:3
- awayMonterrey0:1
- homeAmerica4:3
- homeSantos Laguna1:0
- awayNecaxa3:1
Head to head
- 04/05/26Liga MX2:1
- 09/13/25Liga MX0:1
- 02/09/25Liga MX1:2
- 09/29/24Liga MX2:4
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
Leon1052314:1117
Leon1052314:11176
Atlas1052316:1717
Atlas1052316:17177Cruz Azul1051419:1816
Cruz Azul1051419:18168
Tijuana942314:1314
Tijuana942314:13149
Puebla1042411:1214
Puebla1042411:121410
Monterrey941416:1413
Monterrey941416:141311Pachuca1033415:1112
Pachuca1033415:111212
Pumas UNAM1033414:1612
Pumas UNAM1033414:161213
Atletico San Luis1033414:1812
Atletico San Luis1033414:1812Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.