Alacranes de Durango — Tapatio, Ascenso MX

Mexico, Ascenso MXOctober 18 at 03:00 AM

Alacranes de Durango

WWWLD

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Tapatio

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Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

55%26%19%

Alacranes de Durango55%Draw26%Tapatio19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Alacranes de Durango55%1.82—

XDraw26%3.81—

2Tapatio19%5.32—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.06

No51%

ours 1.94

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Combos: result and total

Two events in one forecast. The model scores them together, from the probability of every scoreline — so the link between them is built in: when the home side is stronger, a win and plenty of goals tend to come together.

Combos come with a subscription: probability, fair odds and the market comparison for all 24 combinations.

Combos: result and corners

The result comes from the goals model, corners from the corners model. The link between them is measured on 66,000 played matches: the winning side usually takes fewer corners, because the team chasing the game does the crossing. The market has no ready line for these combinations, so «Market» here is a parlay of two separate bets: the result and the corners total.

Corner combos come with a subscription: probability and fair odds for all 48 combinations.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAlacranes de DurangoTapatioCombined

Goals scored1.331.002.33

Conceded0.671.171.84

Corners10.411.310.8

Cards3.42.35.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

This market opens with a subscription.

70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Alacranes de DurangoTapatio

CF Alacranes de Durango 55%, CD Tapatío 19%. The safest is “CF Alacranes de Durango or draw” at 81%.

CF Alacranes de Durango 55%Draw 26%CD Tapatío 19%

1st half

33 · 46 · 22

2nd half

51 · 34 · 15

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 3.5

72%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context