All matches

Cerro Largo — Albion, Primera División

Uruguay, Primera División

Cerro Largo
1.8LLLDL
—
Albion
1.6WLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
44%26%30%
Cerro LargoMarket 2.3744%DrawMarket 3.0026%AlbionMarket 2.8530%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cerro Largo44%42%2.272.37+1.8
XDraw26%33%3.883.00-7.6
2Albion30%35%3.312.85-4.8

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.76book 1.84

No43%

ours 2.32book 1.85

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCerro LargoAlbionCombined
Goals scored0.501.001.50
Conceded1.502.003.50
Corners10.78.79.7
Cards2.82.55.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Cerro LargoAlbion

Cerro Largo Fútbol Club 44%, Albion FC 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

Cerro Largo Fútbol Club 44%Draw 26%Albion FC 30%
1st half
37 · 38 · 25
2nd half
32 · 39 · 29

Bookmakers: 2.37 · 3.00 · 2.85

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

72%1.25
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Cerro Largo

  • awayDanubio1:2
  • homeNacional0:2
  • awayMaldonado0:2
  • homeCentral Espanol0:0
  • awayTorque1:2

Albion

  • homeDefensor Sporting3:2
  • awayMontevideo Wanderers1:2
  • homeJuventud1:3
  • awayPenarol1:3
  • homeProgreso0:1

Head to head

  • 04/05/26Primera División2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Liverpool Montevideo311310842:3049
8Central Espanol311081332:4238
9Albion311071441:4237
10Juventud319101235:3937
11Defensor Sporting318111228:3635
12Cerro Largo31891429:3633
13Cerro31961623:4533
14Boston River31871629:4231

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.