All matches

Central Espanol — Nacional, Primera División

Uruguay, Primera División

Central Espanol
1.9LLLDD
—
Nacional
3.4WWWDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
26%24%51%
Central EspanolMarket 5.7026%DrawMarket 3.7824%NacionalMarket 1.5051%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Central Espanol26%18%3.915.70+8.0
XDraw24%26%4.253.78-2.9
2Nacional51%67%1.971.50-15.8

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78book 1.85

No44%

ours 2.28book 1.84

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCentral EspanolNacionalCombined
Goals scored0.501.832.33
Conceded2.170.833.00
Corners10.510.210.3
Cards2.32.75.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Central EspanolNacional

Central Español FC 26%, Club Nacional de Football 51%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

Central Español FC 26%Draw 24%Club Nacional de Football 51%
1st half
27 · 41 · 33
2nd half
26 · 36 · 38

Bookmakers: 5.70 · 3.78 · 1.50

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

67%1.30
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Central Espanol

  • awayMaldonado0:3
  • homeLiverpool Montevideo1:2
  • homeTorque1:4
  • awayCerro Largo0:0
  • homeDefensor Sporting1:1

Nacional

  • homeTorque2:0
  • awayCerro Largo2:0
  • homeDefensor Sporting3:2
  • awayMontevideo Wanderers1:1
  • homeJuventud2:2

Head to head

  • 04/03/26Primera División1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Torque31166952:3754
4Racing Montevideo311411636:2553
5Nacional311641147:3852
6Montevideo Wanderers321481041:4150
7Liverpool Montevideo311310842:3049
8Central Espanol311081332:4238
9Albion311071441:4237
10Juventud319101235:3937

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.