Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.74
No43%
ours 2.35
All matches
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Celtic — Hearts, Premiership
Scotland, Premiership
Celtic
3.6LLWWW
Hearts
2.6DLWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
56%24%20%
Celtic56%Draw24%Hearts20%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Celtic1.77—
XDraw4.24—
2Hearts4.98—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCelticHeartsCombined
Goals scored0.671.171.84
Conceded0.830.831.66
Corners13.811.512.6
Cards1.31.83.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
CelticHearts
Celtic FC 56%, Heart of Midlothian FC 20%. The safest is “Celtic FC or draw” at 79%.
Celtic FC 56%Draw 24%Heart of Midlothian FC 20%
1st half
44 · 34 · 22
2nd half
39 · 37 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 8.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Celtic
- homeRangers0:1
- homeFerencvaros1:3
- awaySaint Johnstone1:0
- awaySt. Mirren2:1
- homeAberdeen3:0
Hearts
- awayKilmarnock1:1
- awayFalkirk1:2
- homeDundee2:1
- awayHibernian3:1
- homeSaint Johnstone2:1
Head to head
- 05/16/26Premiership3:1
- 01/25/26Premiership2:2
- 12/07/25Premiership1:2
- 10/26/25Premiership1:3
- 03/29/25Premiership3:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Celtic760114:418
Celtic760114:4182
Rangers75118:416
Rangers75118:4163Hearts741214:813
Hearts741214:8134
Dundee73139:710
Dundee73139:7105
St. Mirren73138:910
St. Mirren73138:910Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.