Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.77book 1.53
No43%
ours 2.31book 2.37
All matches
Celtic — Besiktas, UEFA Europa League
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
33%26%41%
CelticMarket 2.9833%DrawMarket 3.7926%BesiktasMarket 2.3141%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Celtic3.002.98+0.9
XDraw3.893.79+0.4
2Besiktas2.442.31-1.2
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3839 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3828 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3818 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
CelticBesiktas
Celtic FC 33%, Beşiktaş 41%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Celtic FC 33%Draw 26%Beşiktaş 41%
Bookmakers: 2.98 · 3.79 · 2.31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Away or draw
67%1.43
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCelticBesiktasCombined
Goals scored2.601.804.40
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Celtic- 13 goals in the last 5 matches2:2, 2:1, 1:2, 7:1, 1:4
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches10 goals conceded
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 52:2, 2:1, 1:2, 7:1, 1:4
Besiktas- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Celtic
- homeDundee United2:2
- awayHibernian2:1
- homeCelta Vigo1:2
- homeHearts7:1
- awayBenfica1:4
Besiktas
- homeIstanbul Basaksehir2:0
- homeCrystal Palace2:2
- awayTrabzonspor0:2
- awayHoffenheim3:2
- homeKocaelispor2:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Europe, UEFA Europa League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.