Both teams to score
Yes50%
ours 1.99
No50%
ours 2.01
All matches
—
Tondela — Felgueiras, LigaPro
Portugal, LigaPro
Tondela
1.8WWLLL
Felgueiras
1.8LLWDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
50%26%25%
Tondela50%Draw26%Felgueiras25%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Tondela2.02—
XDraw3.92—
2Felgueiras4.01—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricTondelaFelgueirasCombined
Goals scored0.830.671.50
Conceded0.670.831.50
Corners6.89.58.1
Cards3.02.35.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
TondelaFelgueiras
CD Tondela 50%, FC Felgueiras 1932 25%. The safest is “CD Tondela or draw” at 76%.
CD Tondela 50%Draw 26%FC Felgueiras 1932 25%
1st half
41 · 40 · 19
2nd half
33 · 40 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 3.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Tondela
- awayPortimonense2:0
- homePorto II3:0
- awayLeiria0:2
- homeAcademica0:2
- awayLeixoes0:1
Felgueiras
- homePenafiel1:2
- awayVizela0:1
- homeChaves2:1
- awayFarense1:1
- homeAVS1:1
Head to head
- 02/08/25LigaPro0:1
- 08/31/24LigaPro1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
Leixoes63128:610
Leixoes63128:6108
Benfica II63127:510
Benfica II63127:5109Tondela63037:69
Tondela63037:6910
Academica63038:109
Academica63038:10911
Portimonense62134:67
Portimonense62134:6712
AVS61326:66
AVS61326:6613Felgueiras61325:66
Felgueiras61325:6614
Torreense61327:96
Torreense61327:9615
Amarante61235:85
Amarante61235:85Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.