All matches

Recoleta — Sportivo Ameliano, Division Profesional

Paraguay, Division Profesional

Recoleta
1.5LDLLL
—
Sportivo Ameliano
1.9DDWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
36%27%38%
Recoleta36%Draw27%Sportivo Ameliano38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Recoleta36%2.79—
XDraw27%3.77—
2Sportivo Ameliano38%2.66—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.68

No40%

ours 2.48

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRecoletaSportivo AmelianoCombined
Goals scored0.170.330.50
Conceded0.500.330.83
Corners15.014.514.8
Cards1.01.52.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

RecoletaSportivo Ameliano

CD Recoleta 36%, Sportivo Ameliano 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

CD Recoleta 36%Draw 27%Sportivo Ameliano 38%
1st half
31 · 42 · 27
2nd half
34 · 34 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 4.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Recoleta

  • homeLibertad1:2
  • awaySportivo San Lorenzo0:0
  • awaySportivo Luqueno0:1
  • homeSportivo Trinidense1:3
  • awayGuarani0:2

Sportivo Ameliano

  • awayNacional1:1
  • awayLibertad1:1
  • homeSportivo San Lorenzo1:0
  • awaySportivo Luqueno2:1
  • homeSportivo Trinidense0:3

Head to head

  • 08/22/26Division Profesional1:3
  • 05/11/26Division Profesional2:3
  • 03/09/26Division Profesional1:1
  • 09/29/25Division Profesional4:1
  • 07/21/25Division Profesional3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Sportivo Trinidense3515101053:3755
5Cerro Porteno341671145:3355
6Sportivo Ameliano341215741:3451
7Guarani351214941:3350
82 de Mayo3512111234:4847
9Recoleta351061949:5836
10Sportivo Luqueno35962038:5733
11Rubio Nu34881828:4932

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.