Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.68
No41%
ours 2.46
All matches
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Platense — Motagua, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Honduras, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Platense
1.4LDLWL
Motagua
2.8LWDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
31%27%43%
Platense31%Draw27%Motagua43%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Platense3.27—
XDraw3.73—
2Motagua2.35—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPlatenseMotaguaCombined
Goals scored0.831.172.00
Conceded1.830.502.33
Corners14.012.813.4
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PlatenseMotagua
CD Platense 31%, CD Motagua 43%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
CD Platense 31%Draw 27%CD Motagua 43%
1st half
29 · 39 · 31
2nd half
30 · 38 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Platense
- homeLobos UPNFM0:2
- awayEstrella Roja2:2
- awayOlimpia1:4
- homeAtletico Independiente2:1
- awayAtletico Choloma0:2
Motagua
- awayReal Espana0:1
- homePolicia National1:0
- awayAtletico Independiente0:0
- homeOlancho2:1
- homeLobos UPNFM4:1
Head to head
- 03/19/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras0:1
- 01/30/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras0:2
- 12/03/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras4:0
- 09/17/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Olimpia852119:717
Olimpia852119:7173
Marathon852114:617
Marathon852114:6174Motagua841311:813
Motagua841311:8135
Policia National832310:611
Policia National832310:6116
Olancho82516:511
Olancho82516:5117
Estrella Roja823313:169
Estrella Roja823313:1698
Atletico Independiente82337:119
Atletico Independiente82337:1199
Lobos UPNFM82247:128
Lobos UPNFM82247:12810
Atletico Choloma82156:87
Atletico Choloma82156:8711
Juticalpa82068:196
Juticalpa82068:19612Platense81256:185
Platense81256:185Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.