Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.84
No46%
ours 2.19
All matches
—
La Equidad — Fortaleza CEIF, Categoria Primera A
Colombia, Categoria Primera A
La Equidad
1.1DDLLW
Fortaleza CEIF
1.6DDLDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
45%27%27%
La Equidad45%Draw27%Fortaleza CEIF27%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1La Equidad2.20—
XDraw3.68—
2Fortaleza CEIF3.65—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLa EquidadFortaleza CEIFCombined
Goals scored1.001.172.17
Conceded1.331.673.00
Corners10.26.88.5
Cards2.42.24.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
La EquidadFortaleza CEIF
CD La Equidad Seguros SA 45%, Fortaleza CEIF FC 27%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
CD La Equidad Seguros SA 45%Draw 27%Fortaleza CEIF FC 27%
1st half
37 · 41 · 22
2nd half
33 · 41 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
La Equidad
- homeOnce Caldas1:1
- awayDeportivo Pereira0:0
- awayBucaramanga0:2
- homeAtletico Nacional2:3
- homeLlaneros3:2
Fortaleza CEIF
- awayPasto0:0
- homeDeportes Tolima2:2
- homeJunior1:4
- awayJaguares de Cordoba2:2
- awayIndependiente Santa Fe2:2
Head to head
- 04/03/26Categoria Primera A1:1
- 10/29/25Categoria Primera A0:1
- 09/08/25Categoria Primera A0:1
- 05/10/25Categoria Primera A0:4
- 03/22/25Categoria Primera A1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10
Independiente Medellin311371145:4046
Independiente Medellin311371145:404611
Pasto331271438:4643
Pasto331271438:464312La Equidad349141142:5341
La Equidad349141142:534113
Rionegro Aguilas3010101034:4040
Rionegro Aguilas3010101034:404014
Llaneros318121132:3636
Llaneros318121132:363615Fortaleza CEIF316141135:4532
Fortaleza CEIF316141135:453216
Cucuta Deportivo317101437:5431
Cucuta Deportivo317101437:543117
Boyaca Chico30851725:5029
Boyaca Chico30851725:5029Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.