Cultural San Antonio de Bulo Bulo — Real Potosi, LFPB

Bolivia, LFPBOctober 24 at 09:15 PM

Cultural San Antonio de Bulo Bulo

1.6LDWLL

Real Potosi

2.3WWWWD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

33%28%39%

Cultural San Antonio de Bulo Bulo33%Draw28%Real Potosi39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Cultural San Antonio de Bulo Bulo33%3.06—

XDraw28%3.54—

2Real Potosi39%2.55—

our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1969 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1965 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1955 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Cultural San Antonio de Bulo BuloReal Potosi

CD Cultural San Antonio de Bulo Bulo 33%, Club Real Potosí 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 69%.

CD Cultural San Antonio de Bulo Bulo 33%Draw 28%Club Real Potosí 39%

1st half

21 · 48 · 31

2nd half

30 · 40 · 29

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

72%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCultural San Antonio de Bulo BuloReal PotosiCombined

Goals scored0.801.402.20

Conceded1.400.401.80

Corners7.410.08.7

Cards1.42.03.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with Premium

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.