Carlisle United — Harrogate Town, National League

England, National LeagueOctober 28 at 07:45 PM

Carlisle United

WWLLD

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Harrogate Town

WWWLL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

41%23%36%

Carlisle United41%Draw23%Harrogate Town36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Carlisle United41%2.44—

XDraw23%4.33—

2Harrogate Town36%2.79—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes64%

ours 1.57

No36%

ours 2.76

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.

Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

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69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Carlisle UnitedHarrogate Town

Carlisle United FC 41%, Harrogate Town FC 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.

Carlisle United FC 41%Draw 23%Harrogate Town FC 36%

1st half

43 · 37 · 20

2nd half

27 · 33 · 41

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

68%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCarlisle UnitedHarrogate TownCombined

Goals scored1.171.502.67

Conceded1.170.832.00

Corners11.58.510.0

Cards2.81.54.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.