All matches

Cardiff City — West Ham, Championship

England, Championship

Cardiff City
1.3WLDLL
—
West Ham
1.7DWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
36%25%39%
Cardiff City36%Draw25%West Ham39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cardiff City36%2.80—
XDraw25%4.02—
2West Ham39%2.54—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes64%

ours 1.57

No36%

ours 2.77

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCardiff CityWest HamCombined
Goals scored0.500.330.83
Conceded0.170.330.50
Corners7.014.010.5
Cards5.04.09.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Cardiff CityWest Ham

Cardiff City FC 36%, West Ham United FC 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

Cardiff City FC 36%Draw 25%West Ham United FC 39%
1st half
39 · 34 · 28
2nd half
29 · 37 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Cardiff City

  • homeCharlton Athletic3:1
  • awayBolton Wanderers0:1
  • homeStoke City1:1
  • awayPortsmouth0:2
  • awayQPR1:2

West Ham

  • awayMillwall2:2
  • homeWrexham6:0
  • awayBolton Wanderers3:2
  • homeDerby County3:0
  • homeWolverhampton4:2

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Swansea City852113:617
2West Ham843122:1115
3Middlesbrough843116:1215
4Southampton842219:1014
5Wolverhampton742115:1014
6West Bromwich842210:814
7QPR834110:713
8Stoke City841313:1213
9Bristol City841311:1213
10Charlton Athletic83327:1012
11Birmingham City825112:1111
12Millwall832315:1511
13Lincoln City83237:811
14Wrexham82429:1210
15Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
16Blackburn Rovers823312:129
17Norwich City830516:179
18Sheffield United82339:119
19Portsmouth72239:108
20Watford82247:108
21Cardiff City814310:127
22Derby County81257:145
23Preston81168:154

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.