All matches

Caracas — Zamora, Primera División

Venezuela, Primera División

Caracas
1.8DLLWD
—
Zamora
1.2LLLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
49%27%24%
CaracasMarket 1.7249%DrawMarket 3.3227%ZamoraMarket 4.4224%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Caracas49%58%2.021.72-8.7
XDraw27%30%3.733.32-3.3
2Zamora24%23%4.204.42+1.2

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84book 1.87

No46%

ours 2.19book 1.80

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCaracasZamoraCombined
Goals scored0.500.831.33
Conceded1.002.003.00
Corners8.87.88.3
Cards2.02.84.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

CaracasZamora

Caracas FC 49%, Zamora Fútbol Club 24%. The safest is “Caracas FC or draw” at 74%.

Caracas FC 49%Draw 27%Zamora Fútbol Club 24%
1st half
37 · 41 · 22
2nd half
34 · 41 · 26

Bookmakers: 1.72 · 3.32 · 4.42

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%1.30
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Caracas

  • awayAcademia Anzoategui1:1
  • awayMetropolitanos0:3
  • homeMonagas0:1
  • awayTrujillanos1:0
  • homePortuguesa1:1

Zamora

  • homeMetropolitanos1:3
  • awayMonagas0:1
  • homeTrujillanos1:2
  • awayPortuguesa1:1
  • homeDeportivo Tachira2:5

Head to head

  • 04/20/26Primera División1:1
  • 09/20/25Primera División2:0
  • 04/13/25Primera División0:3
  • 11/09/24Primera División3:1
  • 11/02/24Primera División1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Estudiantes de Merida301161335:3839
9Rayo Zuliano24831331:4527
10Caracas24511824:3126
11Monagas24741326:3525
12Zamora24671124:3525
13Trujillanos24361521:4415
14Academia Anzoategui24351621:4514

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.