Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.79
No44%
ours 2.27
All matches
Caracas — Monagas, Primera División
Venezuela, Primera División
Caracas
1.9LWWDL
Monagas
1.8LDWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
45%28%27%
Caracas45%Draw28%Monagas27%
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Caracas2.22—
XDraw3.57—
2Monagas3.72—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 2904 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 2896 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 2886 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
CaracasMonagas
Caracas FC 45%, Monagas SC 27%. The safest is “Caracas FC or draw” at 74%.
Caracas FC 45%Draw 28%Monagas SC 27%
1st half
34 · 41 · 24
2nd half
32 · 42 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: No draw
71%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCaracasMonagasCombined
Goals scored1.601.603.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Caracas- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 51:2, 2:1, 4:1, 1:1, 0:3
Monagas- Unbeaten away in 4 matches3:3, 1:1, 1:0, 3:1, 1:3
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
- 13th of 14 for corners — 8.2 per match14 teams in the league
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Caracas
- homeDeportivo Tachira1:2
- awayRayo Zuliano2:1
- homeZamora4:1
- awayAcademia Anzoategui1:1
- awayMetropolitanos0:3
Monagas
- homeAcademia Puerto Cabello1:2
- awayAcademia Puerto Cabello3:3
- homeEstudiantes de Merida2:1
- awayRayo Zuliano1:1
- homeZamora1:0
Head to head
- 09/13/26Primera División0:1
- 03/22/26Primera División1:1
- 09/28/25Primera División2:2
- 04/18/25Primera División1:4
- 09/20/24Primera División1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
Universidad Central de Venezuela321291145:4345
Universidad Central de Venezuela321291145:43458
Estudiantes de Merida321171438:4240
Estudiantes de Merida321171438:42409
Caracas27711931:3532
Caracas27711931:353210
Monagas27851432:4129
Monagas27851432:412911
Rayo Zuliano26831532:5127
Rayo Zuliano26831532:512712
Zamora26671326:4125
Zamora26671326:4125Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.