Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.73
No42%
ours 2.37
All matches
Carabobo — Metropolitanos, Primera División
Venezuela, Primera División
Carabobo
2.9WDWDW
Metropolitanos
2.7DDWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
50%27%23%
Carabobo50%Draw27%Metropolitanos23%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Carabobo2.01—
XDraw3.67—
2Metropolitanos4.37—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3520 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3509 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3486 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
CaraboboMetropolitanos
Carabobo FC 50%, Metropolitanos FC 23%. The safest is “Carabobo FC or draw” at 78%.
Carabobo FC 50%Draw 27%Metropolitanos FC 23%
1st half
34 · 43 · 22
2nd half
49 · 32 · 19
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total offsides: Under 4.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCaraboboMetropolitanosCombined
Goals scored1.602.804.40
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Carabobo- Unbeaten at home in 7 matches2:2, 1:0, 1:0, 0:0, 1:0
- Unbeaten in 7 matches3:1, 2:2, 1:0, 1:1, 1:0
- Most shots in the league — 16.2 per match14 teams in the league
Metropolitanos- Unbeaten in 10 matches2:2, 2:2, 4:0, 3:1, 3:0
- Unbeaten away in 6 matches2:2, 2:2, 3:1, 2:0, 1:0
- 14 goals in the last 5 matches2:2, 2:2, 4:0, 3:1, 3:0
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Carabobo
- awayPortuguesa3:1
- homeDeportivo Tachira2:2
- awayAcademia Anzoategui1:0
- awayUniversidad Central de Venezuela1:1
- homeDeportivo La Guaira1:0
Metropolitanos
- awayDeportivo La Guaira2:2
- awayEstudiantes de Merida2:2
- homeRayo Zuliano4:0
- awayZamora3:1
- homeCaracas3:0
Head to head
- 08/16/26Primera División1:0
- 05/31/26Primera División5:1
- 05/03/26Primera División0:0
- 02/20/26Primera División1:1
- 11/05/25Primera División4:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Metropolitanos33199554:3066
Metropolitanos33199554:30662
Deportivo Tachira33198657:3565
Deportivo Tachira33198657:35653
Carabobo341513653:3158
Carabobo341513653:31584
Academia Puerto Cabello341411946:3653
Academia Puerto Cabello341411946:36535
Deportivo La Guaira331313744:3152
Deportivo La Guaira331313744:3152Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.