All matches

Carabobo — Deportivo Tachira, Primera División

Venezuela, Primera División

Carabobo
3.1DWWWL
—
Deportivo Tachira
3.2WDLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
42%28%31%
Carabobo42%Draw28%Deportivo Tachira31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Carabobo42%2.41—
XDraw28%3.63—
2Deportivo Tachira31%3.24—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.18

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCaraboboDeportivo TachiraCombined
Goals scored1.332.173.50
Conceded0.831.332.16
Corners10.68.69.6
Cards2.42.04.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

CaraboboDeportivo Tachira

Carabobo FC 42%, Deportivo Táchira FC 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

Carabobo FC 42%Draw 28%Deportivo Táchira FC 31%
1st half
29 · 43 · 28
2nd half
33 · 40 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Carabobo

  • awayUniversidad Central de Venezuela1:1
  • homeDeportivo La Guaira1:0
  • awayAcademia Puerto Cabello2:0
  • homeEstudiantes de Merida1:0
  • awayRayo Zuliano3:4

Deportivo Tachira

  • awayDeportivo La Guaira4:2
  • homeAcademia Puerto Cabello1:1
  • awayEstudiantes de Merida0:2
  • homeRayo Zuliano3:1
  • awayZamora5:2

Head to head

  • 05/24/26Primera División1:1
  • 05/10/26Primera División1:3
  • 04/25/26Primera División1:2
  • 11/01/25Primera División2:1
  • 10/26/25Primera División1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Metropolitanos30187546:2661
2Deportivo Tachira30177649:3158
3Carabobo311312647:2851
4Deportivo La Guaira301311641:2750
5Academia Puerto Cabello311210940:3246

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.