Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.79
No44%
ours 2.26
All matches
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Como — Manchester United, UEFA Champions League
Europe, UEFA Champions League
Como
2.8LWWWW
Manchester United
2.8DLWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
21%24%55%
Como21%Draw24%Manchester United55%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Como4.71—
XDraw4.20—
2Manchester United1.82—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricComoManchester UnitedCombined
Goals scored1.000.831.83
Conceded0.670.331.00
Corners12.012.712.3
Cards1.70.72.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ComoManchester United
Calcio Como 21%, Manchester United FC 55%. The safest is “Manchester United FC or draw” at 79%.
Calcio Como 21%Draw 24%Manchester United FC 55%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Como
- awayFrosinone0:2
- homeParma2:1
- homeRB Leipzig4:1
- awayGenoa4:1
- awayNapoli2:1
Manchester United
- awayFulham1:1
- homeManchester City0:1
- homeSabah4:0
- awayEverton2:2
- homeIpswich Town5:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
29
Bayern Munich11005:03
Bayern Munich11005:0330
Barcelona11005:13
Barcelona11005:1331Manchester United11004:03
Manchester United11004:0332Como11004:13
Como11004:1333
Stuttgart11003:13
Stuttgart11003:1334
Sporting CP11003:13
Sporting CP11003:13Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.