Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.67
No40%
ours 2.48
All matches
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Caernarfon Town — Briton Ferry Llansawel, Welsh Premier League
Wales, Welsh Premier League
Caernarfon Town
2.2LDWDW
Briton Ferry Llansawel
1.5WDDLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
67%20%13%
Caernarfon Town67%Draw20%Briton Ferry Llansawel13%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Caernarfon Town1.49—
XDraw4.98—
2Briton Ferry Llansawel7.82—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCaernarfon TownBriton Ferry LlansawelCombined
Goals scored2.831.003.83
Conceded0.831.332.16
Corners10.48.29.3
Cards2.01.83.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Caernarfon TownBriton Ferry Llansawel
Caernarfon Town FC 67%, Briton Ferry Llansawel AFC 13%. The safest is “Caernarfon Town FC or draw” at 85%.
Caernarfon Town FC 67%Draw 20%Briton Ferry Llansawel AFC 13%
1st half
44 · 34 · 23
2nd half
50 · 32 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 4.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Caernarfon Town
- homeBarry Town United0:1
- awayCardiff Metropolitan University2:2
- homeCambrian & Clydach Vale9:1
- awayLlandudno1:1
- awayAmmanford5:0
Briton Ferry Llansawel
- homeColwyn Bay1:0
- awayHolywell Town1:1
- homeTrefelin1:1
- awayPenybont2:3
- awayHaverfordwest1:3
Head to head
- 11/01/25Welsh Premier League4:1
- 09/13/25Welsh Premier League5:2
- 11/09/24Welsh Premier League1:0
- 09/14/24Welsh Premier League3:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Penybont1283122:1027
Penybont1283122:10274
Barry Town United1281327:2025
Barry Town United1281327:20255Caernarfon Town1272335:1423
Caernarfon Town1272335:14236
Colwyn Bay1271421:1522
Colwyn Bay1271421:15227
Cardiff Metropolitan University1263323:1321
Cardiff Metropolitan University1263323:13218
Airbus UK1260621:1718
Airbus UK1260621:17189
Cambrian & Clydach Vale1253421:3218
Cambrian & Clydach Vale1253421:321810
Llandudno1251621:1916
Llandudno1251621:191611Briton Ferry Llansawel1233611:2012
Briton Ferry Llansawel1233611:201212
Haverfordwest123187:1710
Haverfordwest123187:171013
Flint Town United1222812:248
Flint Town United1222812:248Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.