Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81book 2.10
No45%
ours 2.23book 1.64
All matches
—
Penarol — Progreso, Primera División
Uruguay, Primera División
Penarol
3.8WDWWW
Progreso
0.9LWWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
70%20%10%
PenarolMarket 1.3270%DrawMarket 4.5020%ProgresoMarket 7.9010%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Penarol1.431.32-5.7
XDraw5.094.50-2.6
2Progreso9.717.90-2.4
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPenarolProgresoCombined
Goals scored2.171.503.67
Conceded0.671.332.00
Corners7.38.27.8
Cards2.22.74.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PenarolProgreso
CA Peñarol 70%, Club Atlético Progreso 10%. The safest is “CA Peñarol or draw” at 86%.
CA Peñarol 70%Draw 20%Club Atlético Progreso 10%
1st half
45 · 36 · 19
2nd half
47 · 35 · 18
Bookmakers: 1.32 · 4.50 · 7.90
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Match result: Home
70%1.32
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Penarol
- awayRacing Montevideo1:0
- awayTorque1:1
- homeBoston River2:1
- awayCerro2:1
- homeAlbion3:1
Progreso
- awayLiverpool Montevideo2:3
- homeRacing Montevideo2:1
- awayBoston River2:1
- homeCerro1:3
- awayAlbion1:0
Head to head
- 04/04/26Primera División2:0
- 08/01/25Primera División2:1
- 02/01/25Primera División3:1
- 11/27/24Primera División5:1
- 06/22/24Primera División2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Penarol32206655:2666
Penarol32206655:26662
Maldonado31177749:2758
Maldonado31177749:27583
Torque31166952:3754
Torque31166952:37544
Racing Montevideo311411636:2553
Racing Montevideo311411636:25535
Nacional311641147:3852
Nacional311641147:38526
Montevideo Wanderers321481041:4150
Montevideo Wanderers321481041:41507
Liverpool Montevideo311310842:3049
Liverpool Montevideo311310842:30498
Central Espanol311081332:4238
Central Espanol311081332:42389
Albion311071441:4237
Albion311071441:423710
Juventud319101235:3937
Juventud319101235:393711
Defensor Sporting318111228:3635
Defensor Sporting318111228:363512
Cerro Largo31891429:3633
Cerro Largo31891429:363313
Cerro31961623:4533
Cerro31961623:453314
Boston River31871629:4231
Boston River31871629:423115
Danubio315141226:4029
Danubio315141226:402916Progreso31841927:4628
Progreso31841927:4628Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.