All matches

CA Mineiro — Santos, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

CA Mineiro
2.0WDWLW
—
Santos
2.3WWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
49%26%25%
CA MineiroMarket 2.0449%DrawMarket 3.5526%SantosMarket 3.6925%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CA Mineiro49%49%2.032.04+0.4
XDraw26%28%3.903.55-2.5
2Santos25%27%3.993.69-2.0

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.74book 1.76

No43%

ours 2.35book 1.96

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA MineiroSantosCombined
Goals scored1.171.672.84
Conceded0.830.831.66
Corners12.211.611.9
Cards1.43.24.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

CA MineiroSantos

CA Mineiro 49%, Santos FC Sao Paulo 25%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

CA Mineiro 49%Draw 26%Santos FC Sao Paulo 25%
1st half
38 · 40 · 22
2nd half
36 · 36 · 28

Bookmakers: 2.04 · 3.55 · 3.69

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

68%1.26
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CA Mineiro

  • homeRed Bull Bragantino1:0
  • homeChapecoense1:1
  • homeFluminense3:1
  • awaySao Paulo0:2
  • homeVitoria2:1

Santos

  • awaySao Paulo2:1
  • awayRemo2:1
  • homeCruzeiro2:1
  • awayInternacional3:2
  • awayCorinthians1:0

Head to head

  • 04/11/26Serie A0:1
  • 09/14/25Serie A1:1
  • 04/17/25Serie A0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Bahia281210643:3546
6Cruzeiro28136942:4045
7CA Mineiro28127937:3243
8Santos28118943:4141
9Coritiba281081037:4338
10Sao Paulo281061233:3236

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.