Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81
No45%
ours 2.24
All matches
—
Juventud — Racing Montevideo, Primera División
Uruguay, Primera División
Juventud
2.0DDWDD
Racing Montevideo
2.6LLDWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
37%26%37%
Juventud37%Draw26%Racing Montevideo37%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Juventud2.69—
XDraw3.85—
2Racing Montevideo2.72—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricJuventudRacing MontevideoCombined
Goals scored1.330.832.16
Conceded0.671.001.67
Corners9.08.28.6
Cards2.52.55.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
JuventudRacing Montevideo
CA Juventud 37%, Racing Club de Montevideo 37%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
CA Juventud 37%Draw 26%Racing Club de Montevideo 37%
1st half
35 · 41 · 24
2nd half
28 · 38 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 3.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Juventud
- awayBoston River0:0
- homeCerro0:0
- awayAlbion3:1
- homeDanubio1:1
- awayNacional2:2
Racing Montevideo
- homePenarol0:1
- awayProgreso1:2
- awayLiverpool Montevideo0:0
- homeBoston River3:2
- awayCerro0:1
Head to head
- 04/04/26Primera División1:2
- 10/20/25Primera División0:0
- 06/08/25Primera División2:1
- 04/19/25Primera División1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Maldonado31177749:2758
Maldonado31177749:27583
Torque31166952:3754
Torque31166952:37544Racing Montevideo311411636:2553
Racing Montevideo311411636:25535
Nacional311641147:3852
Nacional311641147:38526
Montevideo Wanderers321481041:4150
Montevideo Wanderers321481041:41507
Liverpool Montevideo311310842:3049
Liverpool Montevideo311310842:30498
Central Espanol311081332:4238
Central Espanol311081332:42389
Albion311071441:4237
Albion311071441:423710Juventud319101235:3937
Juventud319101235:393711
Defensor Sporting318111228:3635
Defensor Sporting318111228:363512
Cerro Largo31891429:3633
Cerro Largo31891429:3633Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.